Monday, July 14, 2014

2014 Midseason PECOTA report....part 2...the pitchers.

If you've come this far, you know what I'm doing here, so enough with the explanations, let's get down with it.

Will be comparing ERA/FRA/K per 9 innings/and BB per 9 innings, with other things cherry picked if I find them interesting or valid.

Starting with:

Johnny Cueto:

Projection: 3.42/3.71/7.3/2.3
Currently:  2.03/3.53/8.8/2.2

Beating the projection in every category! He's been great. Now let's keep him healthy for the stretch. That strikeout rate is also a career high. I expect the ERA to creep up a bit, and probably wind up with a 2.60 or so by the end of the year....and that's quite ok. He's never been a big strikeout guy but that 8.8 k/9 is 15th among all pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched. A .220 BABIP is a little eye opening, but that's why I expect the ERA to tick up a bit, because I doubt he'll carry a .220 BABIP straight through.

Homer Bailey:

Projection: 3.62/3.94/7.9/2.4
Currently:  4.21/4.43/8.0/2.9

That ERA has been trending down for a while, and I think it'll wind up in the high 3s. That K rate is right on and the walk rate is close, half a walk per 9 isn't THAT much. He's gotten hurt by a .312 BABIP in a year where the league average is .299. Just dropping that down to average would help trememdously. He's typically around .290 in most seasons, so there's your discrepancy, when it seems like he should have better numbers than he does.

Mike Leake:

Projection: 4.16/4.52/6.3/2.0
Currently:  3.54/4.48/6.9/1.9

They nailed the FRA and the Walk rate. That strikeout rate is very surprising, and a career high, and by quite a bit. That is leading to his best season to date. I think this is pretty much his ceiling. I just don't think he has ACE stuff. He's a good midrotation guy and that's all, and that's ok. Gotta have those guys.

Alfredo Simon: (note...preseason PECOTA projected him as a reliever, because, shit, that's what he was supposed to be)

Projection: 4.22/4.59/7.3/2.9
Currently:  2.70/4.59/5.8/2.2

As I've written about before..I just don't think you can be a successful starter long term in today's game without striking out at least 6 batters per 9 innings. 5.8 is right there at the tipping point. I still feel like I'm waiting for the house of cards to collapse every time Simon pitches, but credit where it's due...he's pitched his nuts off so far.

Mat Latos:

Projection: 3.16/3.44/8.3/2.3
Currently:  2.79/4.90/5.4/1.6

Don't really know if you can draw anything from this...since it's only 39 innings of work. That strikeout rate is alarming..but coming back into form after an injury can take some time. He's not walking many, so that's mitigated some of the damage of a dangerously low K rate.

Tony Cingrani:

Projection:  3.81/4.14/9.7/3.3
Currently:    4.55/5.45/8.7/5.0

Very disappointing, and now injured at Louisville. I think his future may be in the bullpen. That secondary stuff just isn't coming along, and without it, teams figured out that he only had a fastball, and yes, it's hard to pick it up out of his hand, but if you see it enough they could hit it. And they did. Hard.

I'm only going to hit some of the bullpen guys and sum up the ones I miss at the end.

Aroldis Chapman:

Projection: 2.31/2.51/13.6/4.0
Currently:  2.20/2.50/18.0/3.1

18 strikeouts per 9! Fuck that..that's video game numbers.

Jonathan Broxton:

Projection: 3.17/3.45/10.1/3.1
Currently:  1.12/3.55/6.3/3.0

That's usually not enough strikeouts for a reliever. His ERA should probably be up there in the high 2s or low 3s based on his performance, because a .163 BABIP is oh so unsustainable.

Sam LeCure:

Projection: 3.49/3.79/8.4/3.1
Currently:  3.48/3.75/8.0/3.7

Other than a tick more walks, he is who we thought he was.

Logan Ondrusek

Projection:  3.72/4.05/7.1/3.2
Currently:    4.31/4.53/8.3/3.7

More strikeouts than before. (or projected, but also more walks too) He's very frustrating, because sometimes he looks like a world beater and times he looks like he should be throwing batting practice.

Manny Parra: (Lance Schenkel's favorite pitcher, lol)

Projection:  3.91/4.25/8.8/3.9
Currently:   3.96/4.88/9.7/4.3

I don't have much else to say. He was bad in Milwaukee, good last year, and mediocre now, which is what you would have expected.

JJ Hoover:

Projection:  3.73/4.05/8.8/3.5
Currently:   4.95/4.87/10.6/4.7

Still walking too many guys. The strikeout rate is nice, but the walk rate will need to come down if Hoover is going to keep his spot long term.

Sean Marshall, Jumbo Diaz, Nick Christiani, Curtis Partch, Carlos Contreras, and Trevor Bell have either been too injured or not been in the majors long enough to really analyse anything. I really like Contreras and Diaz's stuff though. There's something there, although I think the club might want Contreras to continue starting in the minors for his development.


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